UK inflation jumps to 3.5% — cementing rate hike expectations
UK consumer price inflation rose sharply to 3.5%, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Money markets moved quickly to price in a higher probability of policy tightening at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
- GGBPUSD
Hot 3.5% UK CPI print drives hawkish Bank of England rate expectations.
- EEURUSD
Sterling outperformance and European rate divergence weigh on cross flows.
Headline consumer inflation in the United Kingdom accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year, driven by persistent services price pressures and rising household energy bills. The hotter-than-expected reading marks a significant divergence from the Bank of England's 2% medium-term target and caught fixed-income desks off guard. British gilt yields climbed across the curve as overnight index swaps priced in a hawkish shift from Monetary Policy Committee policymakers. Sterling strengthened against major peers on expectations of wider interest rate differentials versus the eurozone. UK domestic equities and rate-sensitive homebuilders came under pressure as investors reassessed borrowing cost trajectories.
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